Cyprus’s real estate market has long attracted local and foreign buyers—drawn by the island’s strategic location, robust services sector, and temperate climate. However, recent global events—from pandemic disruptions to regional instability—have reshaped who is buying and why. This article dives into monthly data from 2020 to 2024 on registered contracts of sale, examining both domestic and international demand trends across Nicosia, Famagusta, Larnaca, Limassol, and Paphos, plus Pancyprian (island-wide) totals.
Why focus on “Number of Properties with Registered Contracts of Sale” rather than final title transfers? Firstly, because it is the Leading Indicator. Contracts capture deals as soon as they’re signed—months or even years before title deeds are finalised, giving us a more immediate view of market demand. Secondly, this indicator captures Off-Plan Sales. Developers often secure sales contracts long before completion, especially for newly launched or off-plan projects.
The Big Picture: 2020 to 2024
Figure 1 – Annual Totals of Registered Contracts (All Regions Combined)
Figure 2 – The percentage breakdown of registered contracts of sale (Pancyprian) by buyer type:
Key Takeaways:
Although Cyprus’s property market has seen shifting dynamics over the past few years, one feature stands out as remarkably consistent: local buyers remain the bedrock of demand, consistently accounting for over half of all registered contracts. Even during the surge in foreign interest between 2022 and 2023, when offshore inflows spiked due to favourable conditions or geopolitical factors, the sheer number of domestic purchasers ensured that market activity did not rely excessively on external sources. This reliance on locals has provided a stabilising effect, helping to cushion potential volatility and keeping transaction volumes steady when foreign investor sentiment ebbs or flows.
Outside the local market, buyers from beyond the European Union briefly took centre stage in 2023, lifting their share to nearly a third. The drivers behind this surge ranged from global capital seeking relatively safe destinations to cyclical shifts in residency and visa policies that made Cyprus temporarily attractive. However, 2024 data tells a different story. Heightened geopolitical tensions, fluctuating currency conditions, and tighter investment requirements are all contributing to a slowing pace of non-EU deals, indicating that the remarkable 2023 peak may have been as much an anomaly as a trend.
Meanwhile, the proportion of EU-based buyers tends to fluctuate in a narrower band, typically between 12 and 19 percent of overall contracts. Frequent flyers from Europe take advantage of straightforward travel links, while many diaspora families maintain close ties with the island. The pandemic and subsequent travel restrictions, alongside evolving macroeconomic conditions across the Eurozone, have occasionally muted their presence. Still, the EU cohort generally remains a steady, if not spectacular, contributor to Cyprus’s real estate landscape.
What is most telling is the broader resilience demonstrated throughout the market. From the tail end of pandemic lockdowns to regional upheavals, Cyprus has rarely experienced the sharp contractions that can plague smaller economies. Instead, it has continued to attract both foreign and local buyers alike. That capacity to weather disruptions underscores the island’s longstanding reputation as a Mediterranean safe haven—an attribute likely to persist as long as global uncertainties drive buyers to seek reliable, business-friendly environments for property investments.
Monthly Highs & Lows: Seasonality in Focus
An examination of monthly data from 2020 to 2024 reveals distinct seasonal patterns across Cyprus’s real estate market. A time-series decomposition method was applied to the number of properties with registered contracts of sale in each district to capture these nuances. This approach helped isolate the long-term trend, pinpoint recurring seasonal peaks or troughs, and highlight any unexpected surges driven by specific geopolitical or policy events. Having determined both the stable pattern and the intermittent shocks, a forward projection was made for three years (2025–2027) under the assumption that no dramatic new disruptions would occur. While the forecast offers a likely trajectory, it does not account for sudden changes in visa regulations, global crises, or major property-related legislation that can rapidly shift demand.
Nicosia illustrates the interplay between a largely local market and mild seasonal swings. From March to May, deals typically run about 15 percent above the monthly average, driven by residents eager to finalise purchases before the summer holiday period. An additional surge often arrives in November and December when year-end incentives, corporate relocations, and tax considerations spur another wave of activity. There is a noticeable dip in August, around 10 percent below the trend, as families go on vacation. In 2024, approximately 85 percent of Nicosia’s buyers were locals, with around 7 percent coming from other EU countries and 8 percent from outside the EU. The capital’s high proportion of residents keeps monthly figures relatively stable, though Q2 occasionally sees a slight bump from overseas investors linked to corporate transfers or diaspora returns during the holiday season. The broader trend shows a solid rise from roughly 2,000 annual deals in 2020 to over 3,500 in 2024. If mortgage availability and employment remain steady, annual contracts could reach between 3,900 and 4,100 by 2027, continuing the characteristic spring and year-end peaks.
Famagusta, by contrast, displays a marked reliance on tourism. Contracts from June to August typically register around 10 percent above the baseline, driven by foreign visitors who combine vacation time with property viewings or finalise holiday-home purchases. During January and February, volumes can slide 15 to 20 percent below average. In 2024, more than half of Famagusta’s registrations came from locals, around a fifth from other EU buyers, and more than a quarter from outside the EU. Those outside-EU deals often climb above 30 percent of total registrations in peak summer months. Local demand follows the school holiday calendar and can produce sharper variations than in Nicosia. Annual totals held steady in 2021 and 2022 but dipped slightly to around 775 in 2024, down from 812 the previous year. Forecasts suggest totals could remain between 750 and 800 annually, though they will likely retain their pronounced summer boosts. Because Famagusta depends so heavily on leisure travellers, any dip in tourism or shifts in foreign investment regulations has the potential to elevate volatility.
In Larnaca, seasonal swings are less extreme than the heavy summertime focus seen in Famagusta. Spring and late autumn, namely March to May and October to December, each produce volumes around 10 to 12 percent above the monthly trend. These surges coincide with the Easter holiday, diaspora visits, and year-end completions. Larnaca avoids a severe summer slowdown, partly due to its position as an international gateway and the ongoing marina and port developments. The city’s buyer profile in 2024 shows a fairly even split between locals (54 percent) and overseas investors, with 34 percent coming from outside the EU—one of the highest such shares on the island—though that foreign demand remains steady across the calendar rather than clustered in specific months. Larnaca’s overall trend has been firmly upward, moving from around 1,300 annual deals in 2020 to about 3,356 in 2024. If expansions at the marina and port continue to draw attention, the city might see annual registrations climb into the 3,600 to 3,800 range by 2027.
Limassol used to experience a pronounced spike in foreign demand between April and July, driven primarily by Russian-speaking buyers who would spend part of the spring or early summer in Cyprus. However, recent sanctions related to the war in Ukraine have curtailed that segment significantly. While non-EU interest still rises somewhat in the spring, the peak is no longer as dramatic as before 2022. Locals now represent around 64 percent of the city’s registrations, up from 54 percent in 2023, while outside-EU buyers account for roughly 27 percent. Overall, deals have remained close to the 5,000 mark in both 2023 and 2024, a mild retreat from earlier growth patterns. If local demand holds firm, Limassol may reach between 5,100 and 5,300 contracts annually by 2027. Yet any revival of Golden Visa programs or a resolution to geopolitical tensions that once brought high-net-worth individuals to its coastline could quickly accelerate the market again.
Paphos relies heavily on the retiree and second-home segment, with British buyers, now classified as outside-EU since Brexit, being especially active. Unlike the other coastal districts that see a summer spike, Paphos often experiences brisk activity in the first half of the year when retirees come for warmer winter and spring weather. During midsummer, many would-be buyers—particularly seniors—steer clear of the heat and larger tourist crowds, resulting in a more minor seasonal bump than in Famagusta or Limassol. Although Paphos maintains a relatively high proportion of outside-EU interest at around 44 percent in 2024, a combination of post-Brexit residency requirements and currency swings affecting the pound has introduced more volatility. Deals declined from nearly 3,373 in 2023 to about 3,107 in 2024, partly reflecting fewer transactions from both British and Russian buyers. Should the UK economy rebound or new retiree-friendly policies emerge, Paphos could stabilise at around 3,100 to 3,300 deals annually.
Taken together, these districts exhibit consistent patterns: spring and late autumn remain the most active periods, influenced by climate, local holiday rhythms, and expat travel schedules. An analysis of buyer mix reveals that local Cypriots tend to dominate in Nicosia, while Famagusta, Limassol, and Paphos lean more on outside-EU surges, and Larnaca benefits from the steady inflow tied to its airport and ongoing urban redevelopment. Projections up to 2027, integrating trend and seasonality, suggest that island-wide contracts of sale could rise from around 15,800 in 2024 to as high as 18,500, provided that global conditions are relatively calm. There may be dips or accelerations along the way if further geopolitical shifts—such as war, sanctions, or visa policy changes—spur significant inflows or sudden exits of foreign capital. Nonetheless, the presence of a robust local buyer base and the island’s enduring appeal as a Mediterranean destination both appear poised to keep the property market on a generally upward trajectory in the coming years.
Figure 3 – Totals of Registered Contracts (The whole dataset):
Stay tuned for Part 3, where we’ll examine the influence of building permits on sales and the geopolitical undercurrents shaping Cyprus’s real estate market.